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The Customs Union of Russia, Byelorussia and Kazakhstan which was established in 1995 and faces a number of objective difficulties and contradictions caused in the first turn by differences in levels of development and directions of reforms. The Intergovernmental Economic Committee which at last started to perform its functions in 1995 still lacks supranational authority; unsettled problems of mutual payment arrears prevent activities of the Payment Union.
Prospects of foreign trade developments within the CIS cannot be estimated in simple terms. The Commonwealth's objective orientation towards integration faces grave political and economic problems. It is probable that in the beginning of next year a negative trade balance with neighboring countries will remain, in particular due to further decline in export of fuel and energy products.
On the whole, the Commonwealth's future, undoubtedly, will depend on the political situation in Russia. However, the experience of the last few years demonstrates that Russia's partners within the CIS prefer to act according to their economic interests rather than to political rhetorics. The CIS member countries are interested in an economic cooperation with Russia exactly because it has progressed relatively further on the way of reforms. That is why slackening pace of the reform or a complete stop of the transformation may damage trends towards integration to such extent that any political declarations on closer unity and cooperation will be overweighed.
Balance of Payments
The balance of payments reflecting Russian residents' activities in the external sector reveals the following key facts.
In 1995, the strengthening ruble did not hold back the growth of trade surplus: exports increased at a greater rate than imports.
As during previous periods import of services exceeded their exports, that being primarily attributed to developing tourism to countries outside the former Soviet Union. Thus, import of tourist services exceeded imports by $ 5366 million. As a result, current accounts balance was by 43 percent less than the balance of foreign trade. Operations of governmental agencies prevailed in the capital account. External debt grew due both to new borrowing and deferments and arrears in debt servicing.
Non-state sector operations were mostly represented by commercial loans, both in terms of merchandise exports with deferred payments and advance payments. As concerns direct and portfolio investment, they remained at an insignificant level.
Growing reliance of residents on ruble was shown by somewhat decreasing amounts of cash foreign exchange.
As a rule, commercial structures accounted for loans granted to non-residents. The main form of such loans was export loans of enterprises.
Non-repatriation of export proceeds became an important factor destabilizing the financial sphere. In January through September of 1995 it reached $ 5.6 billion, as the State Customs Committee (GTK) reports. This figure is comparable to all foreign loans drawn by the state in the same period.
The amount of payments due to disburse the official external debt exerted more pressure on the Federal budget as compared with the same period of the last year. While in 9 months of 1994 96 percent of actual payments to disburse the official external debt were financed at the expense of external sources and only $ 134 million were received from internal sources, in 9 months of 1995 the figures made 89.5 percent and $ 590 million accordingly.
Реферат опубликован: 22/03/2010